Analysis of Dynamic System Toward Governor Policy of Nusa Tenggara Timur about Quota of Beef Cattle Export (Case Study in Plantation Agroecosystem of Timor Island)

The purpose of this research is to analyze the influence of the policy of the Governor of Nusa Tenggara Timur regarding the quota of beef cattle exports to areas of a national beef consumer toward the development of the Bali cattle population on Timor Island, East Nusa Tenggara. Determination of the location by purposive sampling based on physical criteria (land area), biology (availability and population of Bali cattle), and socio-culture (policy) so that the sampling locations representing the agroecosystem of plantations in Kupang district. The material used was 57 Bali cattle and involved 107 respondents of Bali cattle farmers. Respondents were interviewed using a questionnaire of reproduction status of Bali cattle. In addition to interviews, field observations were also conducted to measure the response of Bali cattle production. This research uses primary and secondary data. Data analysis is done by building a dynamic system using Powersim and interpreting simulation results for the next 30 years.The results showed a significant decrease in the population of Bali cattle over the next 30 years due to the high mortality of calves and female parent, low reproductive status of the female, and the export of cattle from uncontrolled agroecosystems. The results of this study indicate that the beef cattle export quota currently determined by local governments needs to be reviewed. The strategy to improve the quality of Bali cattle production in plantation agroecosystems to support cattle export quotas from Timor Island namely (1) farmers and local governments in striving to increase the population of Bali cattle in the agroecosystem of plantation can be done with a technical approach including prevention of death of cattle to the lowest level (<5% per year) and limitations on cattle exports according to the ability of the region; (2) improving the reproductive quality of Bali cattle through artificial insemination or controlled mating management so that it is more efficient; and (3) the government and stakeholders need to review the policy to determined cattle export quotas and improve the reproductive status of cattle in good breeding practice.